

The Curse Of Experience
Through the first month of the college basketball season, Denzel Valentine has proven to be a legitimate Wooden Award candidate. But can his skills translate to the next level?
Jon Crispin was annoyed. When that happens, it usually leads to the former Penn State and UCLA guard writing a post as a way to exorcise the anger. Crispin, now a basketball analyst for the Big Ten Network, had grown tired of the constant second-guessing surrounding college basketball’s most productive player: Michigan State senior Denzel Valentine.
Through nine games, the 6-foot-5 guard is averaging 19.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists while leading the undefeated (and No. 1-ranked) Spartans to the third-best start in school history. More impressive still, Valentine already has racked up a pair of triple-doubles — including a blistering 29-point, 12-rebound, 12-assist tour de force in a 79–73 come-from-behind win over No. 4 Kansas on Nov. 17. In the process, he’s become the early favorite for National Player of the Year, vaulted MSU to the top of the polls, and drawn weighty praise from the likes of former Michigan State stars Draymond Green and Magic Johnson.
Yet, for those tasked with evaluating college players in terms of their NBA upside, Valentine has been marred by uncertainties. While 19-year-old freshman phenom Ben Simmons boasts undeniable youthful flash and next-level explosiveness, Valentine — who turned 22 the day before his sterling showcase against the Jayhawks — has been the subject of a criticism Crispin has grown tired of.
“[They’re like] ‘Well, I’m not sure how his game translates,’” Crispin says. “Are you friggin’ kidding me?”
In his recent dispatch, Crispin emphasized what, in the context of a system defined by one-and-done phenoms, makes Valentine so unique.
“Rather than focus on dissecting and over-analyzing Denzel’s game and NBA potential, I want to look at what makes him great at the level he’s at. Valentine has made steady and consistent improvements in production throughout the course of his career. His production has improved in every aspect from his freshman to senior seasons. Particularly when it comes to assists. Valentine has shown significant improvement in his play-making ability, which is why he has more than doubled his assists per game from last season (4.3 in 2014–15 to 9.2 in 2015–16). It’s as if the game is easier for him than it is for anyone else on the floor. This consistent improvement demonstrates the dedication, perseverance and hard work that we continue to overlook in this business. Instead, we debate whether his skill-set will translate to the NBA.”
Consistent improvement has been a hallmark of Valentine’s career ever since his days at Lansing’s Sexton High School. As a recent Yahoo! Sports profile illustrates, MSU head coach Tom Izzo bluntly told Valentine — son of onetime Spartans forward Carlton Valentine — that he wouldn’t offer him a scholarship until he proved his shooting from the perimeter wasn’t a liability. The next time Izzo watched the younger Valentine play, the then-high-school junior hit seven threes in a game. True to his word, Izzo offered Valentine a scholarship shortly thereafter.
That development has increased geometrically during Valentine’s three-plus seasons in East Lansing, as evidenced by the muscular guard’s per-game stats. Two years after averaging just 20 minutes and five points per as a skilled but erratic wing, Valentine became the quiet cornerstone of Michigan State’s unlikely run to the Final Four last season. Now, eight months later, he may be the most well-rounded player in all of college basketball.
But, part of the speculation over how Valentine’s game will translate from the college level to the pros may be due to his gradual improvement — especially when the most sought after prospects are leaving college after just a year.
“A lot of these kids pay the price in the draft because A, they’re older; B, their upside is not as great as say a freshman who has been highly touted on the AAU circuit and has the potential to be the next superstar,” former Brooklyn Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks recently told Fred Kerber of the New York Post.
By staying in college, players like Valentine find themselves under an increasingly intense microscope, where scouts see more and more of what your game lacks. In this sense, ignorance — in the form of raw, 19-year-old projects whose flaws have yet to be reliably sussed out — is bliss.
It’s something with which Crispin became all too familiar while playing with Jason Kapono at UCLA. Kapano, who’d eventually log nine seasons in the NBA and finish his career averaging 43 percent from three-point range, appeared to be a clear-cut lottery pick after his freshman season ended in 2000.
Instead, Kapono decided to stay in Westwood, eventually playing four seasons for the Bruins and finishing his career with 2,095 points. Despite the sniper’s stellar stats, Crispin remembers how loud his teammate’s doubters became. “All people did was pick him apart,” he recalls. Kapono wound up being selected by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.
Unlike Kapono, however, Valentine wasn’t even considered “pro-ready” until the start of his senior year. While DraftExpress ranked him the 48th best pro-prospect after his junior season, ESPN Insider Chad Ford had Valentine pegged at 105th, with numerous freshman listed ahead of him.
But what separates Valentine from other four-year players is his consistent improvement. Every year, it seems, the grinny guard has added something to his game — from ball-handling to shooting to a sneaky-scary post-game and, perhaps above all, the kind of defensive versatility demanded by Izzo and coveted by today’s increasingly position-nebulous NBA.
Even so, Crispin has noticed a kind of derisive verbiage when it comes to Valentine. Said one unnamed NBA executive following the senior’s triple-double against Kansas, “I’m still not sure if his game translates to our level.”
Such caution stems from a very particular observation: While Valentine’s versatility is indeed impressive, he lacks the size necessary to make that trait a defining asset at the next level.


Officially listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Valentine doesn’t possess the raw physical gifts or athleticism of a lottery pick, according to one college coach, via The Chicago Tribune.
Following Valentine’s torrid start to the 2015–16 season, however, scouts are being forced to heed the lessons of another, equally derided Spartans star: Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green. Indeed, the same unnamed NBA executive who told ESPN he’s still not sure how Valentine’s ability would translate also voiced how the recruiting of NBA prospects remains an inexact science.
“A lot of people said the same thing about Draymond Green, and look what he’s doing,” he said.
A 6-foot-7 forward, Green finished the 2011–2012 season as the Big Ten player of the year after averaging a double-double and leading Michigan State to yet another Sweet 16 appearance. Even so, Green drew criticism over his size and lack of athleticism, eventually dropping all the way to No. 35 in the 2012 NBA Draft.
Three years later, Green’s hyper-versatility earned him a fresh five-year, $82 million contract with the Warriors — a team for which the brash forward had become an indispensable cog at both ends. All the while, what Green lacks in sheer size, he’s more than made up for with his endless motor and ever-refined skill set, tallying 13.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game this season for a 23–0 Golden State team that thrives best when employing small-ball lineups.
Not surprisingly, Green has taken note of Valentine’s exceptional play this season, even making a cameo at the senior guard’s second triple-double of the season, against Boston College on Nov. 26.
“He’s been phenomenal, his second triple-double, and probably should have about five or six right now,” Green told MLive.com after the game. “It just shows the work that he put in all summer. It’s good to see it paying off.”
That work has resulted not only in a more eye-popping stat sheet, but the title bestowed upon him by Izzo becoming all the more credible. From MLive.com:
“I called him when I recruited him my poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor, poor man’s Magic,” Izzo said. “And then last year, Day-Day was playing so well, I called him my poor, poor, poor man’s Day-Day. But there’s getting to be less poors, and that means he’s improving.”
Still, his designation as nothing more than a marginal role player at the next level—in the eyes of NBA talent evaluators, anyway—hasn’t changed. So much of what the NBA Draft is about is potential and upside, and Valentine, despite being just two years older than many of the players poised to be selected ahead of him, doesn’t fit into that box.
That doesn’t make his finding an NBA niche a complete impossibility, however. For his part, Crispin sees Valentine as a late first-round pick — someone who can position himself as a mid-level contributor in the league as he continues to develop.
As Crispin points out, a player who can average 10 points and five rebounds can usually net millions per year in salary. But, he says, the hype surrounding one-and-done players like Simmons and the mass of other 18- and 19-year-old, pro-ready prospects precludes front offices from taking a chance on what could end up being a consummate role player.
In addition, in an NBA that is becoming more and more motion-centric, Valentine touts a skill perfectly suited to what these offenses tend to look for.
“He’s a guy who’s not afraid to make the extra pass if it’s there, but also not afraid to tee up a 3-pointer,” CBS Sports’ Sam Vecinie wrote in his most recent NBA Draft stock report. “Being able to make rapid-fire decisions is something that is essential in the league, and Valentine should have no problem with the thinking side of the game. That, along with his vision, 3-point shooting, and length should fit nicely in the league.”


After the Spartans lost their top scorer (Travis Trice) and rebounder (Branden Dawson) from a season ago, Valentine has proven more than capable of being the unquestioned go-to guy for his team— one as loaded with depth and shooting as any in the country. His best performances have come in some of Michigan State’s most high-profile contests, and the Spartans are now the No. 1 ranked team in Sports Illustrated’s most recent power rankings. Just as Trice, Adreian Payne, Green, Drew Neitzel, Paul Davis, and Mateen Cleaves before him, Valentine has embraced his role as a senior cornerstone with unusual aplomb.
And yet, the conversation continues to be about what Valentine isn’t —an athletic freak with a 40-inch leap whose highlight tape draws drool from even the most casual fan. How those evaluations and critiques are adjusted as the season progresses will be interesting to see. Will Valentine’s stock continue to jump if his averages hold through 20 games? What if the Spartans end up back in the Final Four?
Whatever the question marks, it’s become increasingly clear that Valentin stands to be an interesting case study for how today’s NBA evaluates its prospects. He won’t be a lottery pick, but no longer is Crispin alone in seeing the versatile combo guard as a potential first-round steal in next year’s draft. While criticisms of his game will only become more magnified as the season wears on, Valentine has more than proven that the attention — as backhanded as it so often seems — is more than warranted.

